Hindi-Japani Bhai Bhai!
'Both nations have a common problem: A rampaging, jingoistic and hostile China which is making substantial territorial claims. In the long run, Japan and India are going to be the victims of Chinese aggression -- so they might as well hang together to contain China,' argues Rajeev Srinivasan.
There is a general dictum that when there is a change in government, foreign policy continues much as before. In the United States, even though the two parties fight like cats and dogs over domestic policies, all that stops at the water's edge, and the two parties are as one in the pursuit of the national interest. Ambassador T P Sreenivasan put forth this perspective in a recent discussion I had with him.
However, it is not clear that this applies to the case of India. This is partly because it is hard to believe that the outgoing United Progressive Alliance government truly had India's interests at heart in its foreign dealings. The result of their ad hoc, unthought-through policies has been that India has shrunk as a relevant power, even in its own neighbourhood. The only parties that seem to have done well are quasi-friends like the US which has sold India much military hardware, up from zero in the old Soviet days.
Other than this, India is universally considered a bully by its subcontinental neighbours, it has been kept at arms length by Southeast Asia; the US, Europe, Russia and China treat it as a minor, unimportant regional power. Its energy diplomacy has been pathetic; its erstwhile markets in Africa and Europe are now under threat from the Chinese. The Indian Ocean Rim initiative is going nowhere. That Nehruvian shibboleth, the Non-Aligned Movement, has been consigned to the trash-can of history. India's brand has been diminished by the 'South Asia' moniker. The erstwhile 'Greater India' is only a memory.
In large measure, India's shrinking stature is a result of its pathetic economic growth. It has been left in the dust by all of Southeast Asia and East Asia, all of which have managed to uplift their poor. Today India is the biggest repository of misery in the world, with half the world's malnourished, half the world's blind, half the world's illiterate.
There is no choice but for India to grow at near-Chinese rates, and commerce should be one of the principal pillars of its foreign policy.
But a more important issue for India is the wimp factor. Nobody takes India seriously: It comes across as a weak, gullible, impotent power whose major strength is in lecturing. Nobody likes a moraliser, and India has had many of them, for instance, Krishna Menon. It is rumoured that Chou en-Lai of China considered his interlocutor Jawaharlal Nehru a 'useful idiot'.
Similarly, every time there is a major terror attack supported by Pakistan, some minister threatens dire consequences 'the next time there is a major terror attack'. Therefore Pakistanis attack, again and again, with impunity. There is no pain applied to Pakistani bottoms for perfidy.
The US is facing something along the same lines. Barack Obama is seen as someone whose threats have no teeth. Thus, his promise to act in Syria if chemical weapons were used was shown to be just hot air. He did not act in Ukraine; he is unlikely to step in if the Chinese, emboldened by all this, grab the Senkakus from Japan as they have the Paracels from Vietnam. There is a credibility deficit, as the Financial Times says in 'Barack Obama's cautious foreign policy comes home to roost,' May 14.
This is what makes me suggest a discontinuity in Indian foreign policy, which has always centered on the Anglophone world, and on Pakistan and China. It is time to make a radical shift to an Asia-centric perspective, with Japan as the centrepiece. After Asia, it is important to work with Africa, and then with Europe, specifically Germany, as there is much to be gained from the European Union's leader. There is little that traditional partner Britain can do for us.
Finally, there is the US. Given that Democrats are extremely hostile (this is generally true, although Indians labour under the delusion that Republicans are worse), it is always a bad time for India when they are in power. In particular, this time Barack Obama, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton have gone out of their way to humiliate Modi over the silly visa issue, egged on by Indian-origin leftists/Islamists and conversion-seeking Christian fundamentalists.
Modi is not one to bear grudges, but it is incumbent upon the US to make conciliatory moves. Until that happens, it is going to be a holding pattern in Indo-US relations, detente but no cordiality. The contrast with the warmth with Japan could not be more dramatic.
Why Japan as priority nation? Because it appears to be the most appropriate civilisational/cultural partner. There is more to international relations than transactions. It is important to have alliances with those who have similar affinities, both at the individual level and at the national level.
Japan, along with Bali and Thailand, are the only parts of Asia in which Indians are held in some respect -- the Japanese, for example, see India as their Holy Land. (Unfortunately, elsewhere, it is India's failures, dirt, poverty and squalour that are its calling card.)
Besides, both nations have a common problem: A rampaging, jingoistic and hostile China which is making substantial territorial claims. In the long run, Japan and India, along with Vietnam, the Philippines, and others in Southeast Asia, are going to be the victims of Chinese aggression -- so they might as well hang together to, with Russia and the US, create a reverse 'string of pearls' to contain China.
There are also nice symmetries. Japan has an ageing population; India has one of the world's youngest populations. Japan has plenty of capital; India is hungry for capital. Japan is worried about the security of its investments in China; India is eager to bring in foreign direct investment. Japan has outstanding quality and processes; India needs these if it is to ever become a manufacturing power.
In Shinzo Abe and Narendra Modi we have two nationalists.
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sent from samsung galaxy note, so please excuse brevity
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sent from samsung galaxy note, so please excuse brevity
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