Saturday, August 19, 2017

Quick notes: Competing over Nepal, Ancestry testing...

  • Nepal uses India-China rivalry to fund its railway network: Delhi is funding the reconstruction of the Janakpur line that will allow it to connect to the rest of the subcontinent's expansive rail network. Beijing pledged USD 8.3 billion to build roads and hydropower plants in Nepal, dwarfing India's commitments of USD 317 million.  Feasibility studies are also underway for a Beijing- backed railway connecting Kathmandu to Lhasa in Tibet, cutting straight through the Himalayas at an estimated cost of $8 billion. 


  • China refuses to share hydrological data: China has also blocked a tributary of the Brahmaputra river in Tibet as part of the construction of its hydro project, which is causing concern in India.


  • Leaking data: Government asks 21 smartphone makers, most of them Chinese, to share security information. 


  • Defense tech: China's making major progress with its aircraft carrier tech


  • Racial purity: White supremacists have stumbled into a huge issue -- Genetic Ancestry Testing


  • Violation of anti-smoking laws: Govt threatens Philip Morris with ‘punitive action


  • Winning the meeting:
http://dilbert.com/strip/2017-08-18


Friday, August 18, 2017

Après Bannon, le Déluge?

Departing Whitehouse strategist/advisor Steve Bannon has given an interview saying the Trump presidency "is over":




Bannon's friends are saying that he's now ready to "go nuclear", unleashing attacks on other Trump advisors and GOP moderates who are insufficiently reform-minded and too entrenched in status quo politics:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/bannon-unleashed/537381/

“He’s going nuclear,” said another friend. “You have no idea. This is gonna be really fucking bad.”

This could work in India's favor, given that America's status quo politics, including its Deep State, are totally anchored in Atlanticism, giving priority to perpetual confrontation with Russia over real dangers like the twin threats of rising Islamist militancy and Chinese hegemony.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/18/why-bannon-lost-globalists-won-215506

Steve Bannon Out at Whitehouse

Donald Trump has removed Steve Bannon from his role in the Whitehouse administration:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-decides-to-get-rid-of-white-house-chief-strategist-stephen-bannon/2017/08/18/98cd5c40-8430-11e7-902a-2a9f2d808496_story.html


This is too bad - like Flynn, he had an ideological tilt that was very beneficial for India, including a strong tilt against Islamic fundamentalism and Chinese expansionism.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/17/think-what-you-want-about-steve-bannon-but-hes-got-a-good-point-on-china/


His departure could mean a deepy and possibly fatal wound for the Trump administration, since Bannon was a key favorite among the nationalists who form Trump's base. Bannon had apparently already submitted his resignation on August 7, so his recent leaked remarks to the media were made in the wake of his own departure decision. Breitbart's news site are of course close surrogates of Bannon, so their reaction is likely to be highly critical of Trump.

On the other hand, Bannon will be back to cultivating his media-driven movement again:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bannons-next-move-a-return-to-breitbart-news-with-more-reach-than-ever/2017/08/18/3502d18c-843e-11e7-b359-15a3617c767b_story.html

https://www.axios.com/bannons-next-move-2474479917.html

India Supplying BrahMos to Vietnam

In a bold move, the Indian govt has decided to sell the BrahMos supersonic anti-ship cruise missile to Vietnam, and the first batch has already been received by them:

http://defenceaviationpost.com/brahmos-chinese-backyard-vietnam-acquires-supersonic-cruise-missiles-india/





BrahMos is a 1-shot-1-kill weapon -- once the missile comes into detection range, the target has less than 6 seconds to react.

https://bharatkarnad.com/2017/08/18/finally-vietnam-has-the-brahmos/

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Bannon Trying to Re-Shape USA's Asia Policy

Trump's policy strategist Steve Bannon is trying to re-shape America's policies towards Asia, as he works to oust those whom he feels represent the status quo:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/bannon-interview-thornton/537189/

“I’m changing out people at East Asian Defense; I’m getting hawks in,” Bannon told The American Prospect, a liberal magazine, in a candid interview. “I’m getting Susan Thornton [acting head of East Asian and Pacific Affairs] out at State.”
At issue in the interview are Bannon’s views toward China—“We’re at economic war with China”—and what he sees as its inadequate help reining in North Korea. (“On Korea, they’re just tapping us along. It’s just a sideshow.” He also said he doesn’t believe there’s a military solution for North Korea.)

http://www.politico.eu/article/steve-bannon-white-house-vows-to-shake-up-staffing/

“To me,” Bannon said, “the economic war with China is everything. And we have to be maniacally focused on that. If we continue to lose it, we’re five years away, I think, 10 years at the most, of hitting an inflection point from which we’ll never be able to recover.”
Pushing his get-tough-with-China approach is “a fight I fight every day here.” At least part of his strategy, he said, would be to change out staff members at the State Department and Department of Defense, specifically naming one official he planned to remove.

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2107132/bannon-says-us-being-crushed-china-economic-war-he

https://www.ft.com/video/223f875c-cb61-4a71-aace-b94d52e312a4

China State Media Lampoons Indians

China's official state news service, Xinhua, has put out a video featuring an ethnic caricature of Indians while discussing the issue of the Doklam dispute:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/17/chinese-state-media-made-a-racist-video-about-india-and-is-censoring-its-critics/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-40957719


The video features a Chinese actor in costume mimicking an Indian accent

Stay classy, China. 😒


Meanwhile, Congress mouthpiece Prem Shankar Jha attempts an even worse caricature:

https://thewire.in/168526/narendra-modi-india-bjp-shah/

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

China Border Threat

Another Chinese border incursion has occurred - this time in Ladakh:

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/at-ladakh-lake-india-china-stand-off-lasted-2-hours-10-facts-1738087


Brahma Chellaney warns that China certainly wants war:

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/china-war-xi-jinping-doklam/story/1/18991.html

Quick notes: Chinese imports, Beef in cereal...

  • Imports of electronics and IT products from China:  "Many of the devices transmit, or store, data back into Chinese servers, which could pose a security risk. Also, online transactions using many of these devices and platforms can be tracked back to Chinese servers, which can create security issues for the country".


  • Sigh!: India’s exports to China include iron ore, cotton yarn, petroleum products, copper and chemicals, while imports include telecom instruments, electronic components, computer hardware, industrial machinery and chemicals.


  • Hindus offended: Gelatin derived from beef is used in a variety of Kellogg cereal products.


  • White Jesus: Too many Christian pastors are silent on Charlottesville violence


  • Sikhs in America: For more than a century, Sikhs in the U.S. have faced hate and violence.


  • On Hinduism:
    Hinduism gave itself no name, because it set itself no sectarian limits; it claimed no universal adhesion, asserted no sole infallible dogma, set up no single narrow path or gate of salvation; it was less a creed or cult than a continuously enlarging tradition of the God ward endeavor of the human spirit. An immense many-sided and many staged provision for a spiritual self-building and self-finding, it had some right to speak of itself by the only name it knew, the eternal religion, Santana Dharma.

    Now just here is the first baffling difficulty over which the European mind stumbles; for it finds itself unable to make out what Hindu religion is.... How can there be a religion which has no rigid dogmas demanding belief on pain of eternal damnation, no theological postulates, even no fixed theology, no credo, distinguishing it from antagonistic or rival religions? How can there be a religion which has no papal head, no governing ecclesiastic body, no church, chapel or congregational system, no binding religious form of any kind obligatory on all its adherents, no one administration and discipline? For the Hindu priests are mere ceremonial officiants without any ecclesiastical authority or disciplinary powers and the Pundits are mere interpreters of the Shastra, not the law-givers of the religion or its rulers.

    How again can Hinduism be called a religion when it admits all beliefs, allowing even a kind of high-reaching atheism and agnosticism and permits all possible spiritual experiences, all kinds of religious adventures? -- Sri Aurobindo, India's Rebirth

Saturday, August 12, 2017

Quick notes: Border patrol, HCCI engine...

Friday, August 11, 2017

Sundar Pichai - Google's Own Manmohan Singh?

In a scathing piece in the New York Times, columnist David Brooks says that Google CEO Sundar Pichai should step down following his firing of an employee for remarks on women during a discussion of why certain groups (eg. women) are less prevalent in the software industry:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/11/opinion/sundar-pichai-google-memo-diversity.html


"....this episode suggests he should seek a nonleadership position."
Gee, that sort of sums up how exasperated Indians felt with Manmohan Singh.

US Trade Crackdown on China Coming

The Trump admin is about to launch a series of measures against China as part of a trade crackdown on the country, spurred in part by Beijing's lack of effort in bringing its client North Korea to heel:


http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/11/trumps-china-trade-crackdown-coming-monday-241558


India should watch and take notes on the effectiveness of US measures against China, given the latter's role as Pakistan's military patron (and now economic patron as well).

Wednesday, August 09, 2017

India Accused of "Weaponizing" Pilgrimages

An article by an Indian Lefty accuses India of "weaponizing" pilgrimages:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/09/india-is-weaponizing-its-spiritual-tourists/

I say 'Go For It' - and change Article 35A while you're at it.

Implantable Chip Induces Stem Cell Healing

An implantable chip has been developed, which can convert ordinary cells into stem cells of any tissue type, enabling rapid wound-healing:

https://news.osu.edu/news/2017/08/07/regenerative-med-study/



Tuesday, August 08, 2017

US to Confront China as North Korea Creates ICBM Warhead

North Korea has developed miniaturized nuclear warheads needed for an ICBM strike on the United States, US analysts are now saying. The rogue regime controls up to 60 nuclear weapons - enough to overcome US defenses. An alarmed US is seeking to confront China over its North Korean surrogate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-now-making-missile-ready-nuclear-weapons-us-analysts-say/2017/08/08/e14b882a-7b6b-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html







Quick notes: Air power, Bleeding burger...

Monday, August 07, 2017

China's Position in Indian Ocean

How would India and China do against each other in a naval conflict in the Indian Ocean?

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/07/who-will-win-the-sino-indian-naval-war-of-2020/

China's new base in Djibouti puts it right on a strategic choke point near the mouth of the Red Sea:



iims and faculty backgrounds by jati

we have heard of the infamous #googlememo

here's interesting information about iim faculty.

i'm not making any value judgments, merely providing data.


--
sent from samsung galaxy note3 neo, so please excuse brevity

Fwd: Charlene Chu has her estimate of USD33trn debt for China



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sent from samsung galaxy note3 neo, so please excuse brevity

Sunday, August 06, 2017

Fwd: Oursanskrit.com : Lesson 19 published

here's a series of lessons from my good friend parameswaran namboodiripad. please follow them. 
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: paramu kurumathur


Dear all,

 

https://oursanskrit.com/2017/07/24/lesson-19-athematic-verbs-classes-5-and-8/

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Jlhas7_itU

 

Forward to your contacts who may be interested.

 

Regards

 

 

Sent from Mail for Windows 10

 

From: paramu kurumathur
Sent: 09 July 2017 11:06
To: Rajeev Srinivasan; Shalini Puthiyedam; PN Namboodiri
Subject: Oursanskrit.com : Lesson 17 published

 

 

https://oursanskrit.com/2017/07/09/lesson-17-athematic-verbs-2/

 

https://youtu.be/Og7ESbCHpFQ

 

Regards

 

 

Sent from Mail for Windows 10

 

 

 




--
sent from samsung galaxy note3 neo, so please excuse brevity

Saturday, August 05, 2017

Vijender Singh Defeats China's Zulpikar Maimaitiali in WBO Title

India boxing champ Vijender Singh has defeated China's Zulpikar Maimaimtiali to win the unified WBO Asia Pacific and Oriental Super Middleweight title:


http://www.hindustantimes.com/other-sports/vijender-singh-vs-zulpikar-maimaitiali-wbo-title-bout-boxing-live-score/story-mEO9M4pfyEuuJ8DuQwVAHM.html






Calling for peace at the India-China border, Singh then returned the belt he'd won back to his Chinese opponent.

http://www.news18.com/news/sports/vijender-singh-speaks-for-peace-on-india-china-border-returns-belt-1483801.html

Friday, August 04, 2017

the world according to...

http://metrocosm.com/how-we-share-the-world/?ref=tw

click on the circles to get different perspectives

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sent from samsung galaxy note3 neo, so please excuse brevity

Fwd: Is there a demographic component to the proxy war in Kashmir?


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Anjaneya Bajaj <

Dear Colleague,

Fertility Tables published by Census 2011 indicate that the annual number of births in Kashmir Valley has doubled since Census 2001. There were 85,157 live births in the Valley in the year preceding Census 2001, that number has risen to 1,76,673 in 2011. This abrupt rise is restricted only to births in the Valley. In Jammu region, number of births has increased by only 19.3 percent, which is somewhat less than the rise in population of that region. In Ladakh, number of births has declined by nearly a third.

 

Of the children born in the valley 99.13 percent are Muslim. The spurt in live births in Jammu and Kashmir is thus limited to the Muslims in the Valley. The rise is such that an average Muslim woman in the Valley can now expect to produce 1.34 extra children over her lifetime compared to what she could have expected in 2001. Such a drastic change in the fertility rates over a period of just one decade is indeed surprising.

 

Census provides one more measure of fertility: number of children in the 0-6 year age group per hundred of the population of different communities. This measure also confirms the sudden rise of fertility in the Muslim community of the Valley. Census 2001 counted 14.64 children per hundred of population among them, the ratio in 2011 is 17.83. Thus, compared to 2001, there are 3.2 more children per hundred of the population among Muslims there.

 

There has obviously been a great spurt in the fertility of Muslims in the Valley. Such a drastic rise in the fertility measures is unlikely to happen spontaneously. The numbers do indicate a systematic, concerted and successful effort among the Muslims of the Valley to have more children. Surprisingly, no indications of such an effort have emerged in the public domain.


In view of the great significance of these numbers, we have collated the relevant data in the note below:

http://blog.cpsindia.org/2017/07/is-there-demographic-component-of-proxy.html


With warm regards,


Dr. J. K. Bajaj

Centre for Policy Studies

www.cpsindia.org, blog.cpsindia.org


P/S: Please reply to policy.cpsindia@gmail.com





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sent from samsung galaxy note3 neo, so please excuse brevity

allegations against chidambaran and son, private limited

http://postcard.news/p-chidambaram-biggest-corrupt-man-india-ever-saw-will-shocked-know-amount-looted/

billions! impressive.

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sent from samsung galaxy note3 neo, so please excuse brevity

Thursday, August 03, 2017

rajeev in swarajya on not getting too obsessed with data but looking beyond it

there are many factors. data is only one, albeit an important one. there is a tendency to deify it, which is wrong, and leads to quick limits to knowledge. intuition and the issue of complex connections, with indra's net being a good metaphor, is worth considering.

https://swarajyamag.com/magazine/-going-beyond-data-on-intuition-knowledge-and-the-connectedness-of-things

Quick notes: NITI Aayog, Model 3...

  • When Nation Building Can Be A Sabbatical: To woo a high profile NRI back, whether it's Arvind Panagariya or Raghuram Rajan, the call of the motherland is positioned as a sabbatical within the American Dream.


  • NITI Aayog: Panagariya realised that he was holding a non-job. Unlike the Planning Commission, the Niti Aayog had no powers to direct the channeling of resources to approved projects.


  • Tesla’s Model 3: BMW and Mercedes should be concerned. This automobile is clearly targeting their market.


  • Kashmir terror funding: The National Investigation Agency is focusing on a hawala racket relating to the annual Haj pilgrimage and trade fraud along the LoC as two funding channels being used by separatists and terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir.


  • Kalyani Rafael: India's first private missile production facility unveiled


  • In Kerala, 3 Men Guarded King Cobra Eggs For Over 100 Days: After 72 days, they started a round-the-clock vigil, till they saw the king cobra hatchlings emerge, nearly 30 days later.


  • Sunset: Every sunset ends with a green flash... In Indian mythology, the Sun god rides on a chariot drawn by seven green horses.
  • http://aumamen.com/stotra/aditya-hridayam-stotram


  • Chembai Sangeeta Utsavam Guruvayur Ramakrishnamurthy




Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Fwd: Mind the power gap between India and China+Why is Chanakya not part of Pakistan’s historical consciousness+The empire strikes back


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Sanjeev Nayyar


Unless India build comprehensive national strength, economic & military, the gap with China shall keep on increasing. Let us not blame the Chinese when they strike deals in India's neighborhood – they have the power we do not. Indians need to change the way we think and work, esp in MOD and Higher Judiciary. Hope India gets a Raksha Mantri soon. China Pakistan and other friends will try to keep India tied down. We need to address that and simultaneously focus on building economic and military power.
 
1. Why India needs to stop tempting fate and reform its military on war footing 30.8.17 by Shri arun prakash
 
2. Mind the power gap between India and China 2.7.17 by C Raja Mohan http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-china-standoff-mind-the-power-gap-4777926/
Similarly in Myanmar, despite many political anxieties about economic over-dependence on Beijing, the government is reportedly close to a deal with a Chinese company for the commercial development of the Kyaukpyu island on its Bay of Bengal coast. Once Yangon signs on the dotted line, the Chinese company will start building a deep seaport, special economic zone and an industrial park. The Bay of Bengal is unlikely to be the same after that. Kyaukpyu is all set to become the energy gateway for petroleum imports into western China through a twin oil and gas pipeline system running from the Bay of Bengal
Beijing does not have to deliberately contain India. Beijing's exercise of its growing comprehensive national power — economic and military — will inevitably have that effect. Put simply, the question is not about Chinese intentions, but the massive surge in its capabilities.
Third, India had severely underestimated the implications of China's rise for India. Facile talk of the world being large enough for China and India masked the prospect that the changing power balance in Beijing's favour could alter the dynamic on India's long and disputed frontier with China.
The longer Delhi takes to act vigorously on its frontier region development, military modernisation and regional economic integration, the greater will be its degree of difficulty in coping with China's rise and future Doklams, Hambantotas, and Kyaukpyus.'
SN – The Sittwe port in Myanmar was to be completed in 2014 if I remember correctly. We are in 2017 and still not there.
 
3. How China plans to tame Sri Lanka with 'debt trap diplomacy' 2.8.17 by harsh pant http://www.dailyo.in/politics/china-hambantota-sri-lanka-xi-jinping-deb-diplomacy/story/1/18717.html
The revised deal with China provides for the formation of two companies to split the operations of the port in which China will run the company that will be in charge of business while Sri Lanka will have a major stake in the firm dealing with security. This is an attempt to allay Indian concerns.
Blaming Beijing is the easier option. Getting ready to challenge China's profile by enhancing its own regional role as an economic and security actor is the need of the hour for India.'
 
 
5. India-Japan growth corridor may mean division, not connectivity for Asia, Africa OPED 2.8.17 http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1059129.shtml
 
6. How close can the relationship between Australia and India become? 2.8.17 http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1059030.shtml
 
'Nothing can describe this irony better than The Indus Saga , in which Aitzaz Ahsan writes in the preface: "… a nation in denial of its national identity is unfortunate. But when it chooses to adopt an extra-territorial identity, it becomes a prisoner of propaganda and myths... This is the Pakistan of today, not the Pakistan of its founders. Identity is at the heart of its problem". If Pakistan is to come out of its tortuous identity crisis, it needs to accept its non-Muslim history as its own. Recognising someone as important as Chanakya will have to be part of the long process. '
 
8 India's Higher Defence Management and War Direction Needs Reforms 2.8.17 by brig arun b http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/indias-higher-defence-management-and-war-direction-needs-reforms/
 
9. North Korea's ICBM launch tests Trump administration 1.8.17 by joshy paul http://www.indiandefencereview.com/north-koreas-icbm-launch-tests-trump-administration/
 
10. World Bank allows India to construct Kishanganga, Ratle projects in J&K 2.7.17 http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/world-bank-allows-india-to-construct-kishanganga-ratle-projects-in-j-k/445942.html
 
Warm Regards
sanjeev nayyar




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sent from samsung galaxy note3 neo, so please excuse brevity

Sunday, July 30, 2017

Trump Upset with China After North Korean ICBM Test

Trump has said he's "very disappointed" with China, following North Korea's latest ICBM test:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40767033


India could never be bothered to say such things of China whenever Pak acted up with Chinese support. China should also think twice about starting a war with India over Doklam, when it already has some big powers angry at it over its other antics.

Saturday, July 29, 2017

Fwd: D China, India must prevent border tensions from blocking progress toward RCEP+China Pak Water Axis on the Indus + Non Traditional Threats: South Asia's “Meth” Traffic


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Sanjeev Nayyar


1. Dragon Bristles At India's Defiance, But Makes Silent Inroads Into Bhutan 20.7.17 by jaideep mazumdar Good Read https://swarajyamag.com/politics/dragon-bristles-at-indias-defiance-but-makes-silent-inroads-into-bhutan 
China, however, has not been sitting idle. It has stepped up its charm offensive in Bhutan. China is offering attractive scholarships to Bhutan's best and brightest to study in Chinese Universities. It is strengthening ties with Bhutan in the fields of culture, education and sports. It has been hosting a number of eminent personas from Bhutan and has promised to not only undertake massive infrastructure projects in that country, but also extend soft loans to Bhutan.
One of the latest symbols of China's increasing footprint in Bhutan is the massive, 51.5 metre-high Buddha Dordenma statue that looms over Thimpu. Though it is said that the massive gilded statue of Bhagwan Buddha costing over $4.7 lakh (Rs 305 crore) is sponsored by a Chinese-origin Singaporean billionaire, it is widely believed that the businessman was simply fronting for the Chinese government. China is also footing a major part of the $100 millions (Rs 650 crore) Buddha park and other facilities amidst which the gigantic statue is set.'
 
2. Dams Pakistan will build by Lt Gen Grover 21.7.17 http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/dams-pakistan-will-build/439651.html
The 400-km cascade of dams on the Indus will stretch all the way from Gilgit-Baltistan to the existing Tarbela Dam near Islamabad. China will provide about $50 billion through its agency National Energy Administration (NEA).  It has been reported that the first allocation of funds will take place next year.
The proposed dams may also lead to the submergence of a major part of the Karakoram Highway, initiating displacement and relocation of millions of people who will perhaps lose their livelihood as the agricultural fields will no longer be replenished by deposition of fresh, fertile sediments.
The Indus river is the largest river as also the national river of Pakistan. The snows and glaciers of the Himalayas, Karakoram and the Hindu Kush ranges of Tibet, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh and Gilgit-Baltistan (PoK), largely feed the Indus system.
 
2a. China Pak Water Axis on the Indus 21.7.17 by priyanka singh http://www.idsa.in/issuebrief/china-pakistan-water-axis-on-the-indus_psingh_190717
'It is natural that once the North Indus Cascade fructifies India may have to further contend with popular misgivings that stem from looking at the other side of the LoC and the development prospects that Chinese-aided projects are expected to augur in due course.
India is yet to fully harness its permissible share for storing water up to 3.6 MAF (million acre-feet) under IWT in the western rivers (Jhelum, Chenab and Indus) allotted for its use.24 Besides, in comparison to Pakistan's tally of dams on the eastern rivers including those on the Indus, India has so far built only a small number of run-of-the-river dams on the western rivers.
However, before looking at what China is doing in cahoots with Pakistan, certain domestic realities within China must be accounted for, foremost being the saturation levels in the manufacturing sector, idle machinery, labour, etc. The same could be partially, if not wholly true, with regard to China's dam construction industry. A report prepared by Urgewald, an environmental lobbyist group based in Germany, shows how China's state-owned enterprises – China Datang Corporation, China Huaneng Group, and State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) – are involved in the majority of overseas coal-fired power projects in contravention of China's stated commitment on climate change.25 '

3. Non Traditional Threats: South Asia's "Meth" Traffic 21.7.17 by anant mishra and richa chadha http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/non-traditional-threats-south-asias-meth-traffic/
The intensity of the issue within South Asia is clearly visible from the fact that, those nations which are principle "consumers" of methamphetamines, be it Laos, China and Myanmar, are not only the largest consumers, they also make a major "profit" from the largest drug trade in the history of South East Asia. There "illicit" revenue has further infuriated member nations of South Asia, particularly those which have designated law enforcement agencies to apprehend drug traffickers in their region.

4. There is a method in China's Doklam Stand 19.7.17 by bhaskar roy http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/2185
It is important to note that China has unleashed its "three warfares" strategy in full.  The strategy perfected around 2005'.
 
5. China, India must prevent border tensions from blocking progress toward RCEP 21.7.17 http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1057308.shtml
Hundreds of officials from 16 nations are set to address a gathering in Hyderabad, India next week where they will meet to negotiate an Asia-centered trade deal called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). China and India are two prominent members of the group, but they face the task of preventing an escalation of their border tensions from becoming an obstacle to reach ing trade agreements at the negotiating table.
 
6. Military conflicts to escalate if India refuses to withdraw troops OPED 21.7.17 http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1057440.shtml
'She was lying to the parliament. First, India's invasion of Chinese territory is a plain fact. New Delhi's impetuous action stuns the international community. No other country will support India's aggression. Second, India's military strength is far behind that of China. If the conflict between China and India escalates to the intensity where their row has to be resolved through military means, India will surely lose.  She was lying to the parliament. First, India's invasion of Chinese territory is a plain fact. New Delhi's impetuous action stuns the international community. No other country will support India's aggression. Second, India's military strength is far behind that of China. If the conflict between China and India escalates to the intensity where their row has to be resolved through military means, India will surely lose.  '
The way some Indians compare China's military strength with that of India at the border is extremely comical. They bragged that India has more troops in the area but they fail to realize that the PLA's strong capability to deploy troops can reverse the balance of power at the border within a day. The PLA's long-range combat capability can also allow its troops in remote area to provide fire support to troops at the border.
India should by no means count on support from the US and Japan because their support is illusory. If India fancies the idea that it has a strategic card to play in the Indian Ocean, it could not be even more naïve
 
7. Afghanistan and Turkmenistan: A model for regional economic cooperation 19.7.17 by m ashraf http://www.orfonline.org/expert-speaks/afghanistan-turkmenistan-model-regional-economic-cooperation/
Warm Regards
sanjeev nayyar



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How should India deal with China? by Sanjeev Nayyar in Indian Defence Review


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From: Sanjeev Nayyar

How should India deal with China?
By Sanjeev Nayyar
 

India's refusal to be part of OBOR and Doklam stand-off has made China occupy more mind space than at any time in the recent past. Conversely Global Times, mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China, regularly publishes articles threatening and advising India.

 

Till now, Indians thought their primary enemy was Pakistan, a neighbour whose people are of the same stock and seen on prime time. With China it is different.  

 

How does one deal with a neighbour who is determined to be Asia's leading power and "steer you towards participation in its grand geopolitical design represented by the Belt and Road Initiative", grabs your territory stealthily, is less visible, makes  equipment at a lower cost, whose phones you use, has deep pockets, uses Pakistan to keep you tied down, woos your neighbours and impedes your emergence as a rival power.

 

How should India deal with China? First some broad contours.

 

Our mantra should be cooperate and compete. Be firm, keep channels of communication open and never let your guard down. There is no need for India to be submissive because China's GDP is five times ours and ape its  achievements in infrastructure and manufacturing. India's actions should be driven by its civilizational values and not in response to Chinese moves. In Africa India must play to its strengths. We need partners to make China understand the need for mutual respect. Every Indian move has to be timed and not give China an opportunity to play the victim card. Simultaneously, we can work together for greater benefit e.g. climate change.

 

India needs an integrated and comprehensive policy towards China. Here is what she must do.

 

One: China is doing what it does because of economic strength. India must be focussed on becoming an economic and military power.

 

Two: The next time China offers to play a constructive role in improving relations between India and Pakistan, India must offer to help China in resolving its disputes with Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and Philippines amongst others.  

 

Three: The more the Chinese needle us, the firmer must be our resolve. Sometimes India could, with a smile, show China the mirror for e.g. by asking why it supports terrorism.  

 

Four: One of the reasons for China flexing its muscles is improved relations with Russia. The latter needs Chinese support to counter the U.S. led economic sanctions and in Afghanistan. India must not get unnerved because China might, true to its nature, turn the tables on Russia once it becomes a dominant partner. 

 

Five: On ties with Russia and U.S. former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal recently wrote, "We must have both the US and Russia as close partners and work with both countries on issues where our respective interests coincide without undermining the legitimate interests of either country."

 

Six: India must woo Taiwanese companies to invest in India esp. in telecom hardware.

 

Seven: Sooner than later China shall use water as a weapon against India. Study the impact of the proposed "the 400-km cascade of dams on the Indus will stretch all the way from Gilgit-Baltistan to the existing Tarbela Dam near Islamabad." Ditto for Brahmaputra.

 

Eight: India must be steadfast in its stand that Gilgit and Baltisthan are part of India and provide "political, diplomatic and moral support to the Baloch people who may be engaged in disrupting the corridor".

               

It is counter-moves that could put pressure on China or else India is always left responding.

 

Nine: India invariably associates defending the border by the army. Since it is impossible to guard every inch of land India is always under pressure. We need to change tack as noted columnist Nitin Pai recently wrote. "India should respond to Chinese moves in the Himalayas and the subcontinent with counter-moves in the South China Sea and beyond. By using sea power in a geography that China is sensitive about, India could raise the costs of Beijing's Himalayan enterprises". 1

 

Ten: Agni IV, V and Brahmos missiles are yet to be inducted into the armed forces. Government must raise the bar and induct by September quarter 2018 if not earlier.

 

Eleven: On the border issue, every time China raises it we must remind them of the 1996 agreement, unilaterally repudiated by them in 2002, where it was agreed to 'clarifying the alignment of the LAC in those segments where they (the two sides) have different perceptions'. The ball is in China's court.

 

Twelve: China is not only at our border but has an ever increasing presence in trade, business and financial markets.

 

Writing in MINT, Rajrishi Singhal gave three examples of such presence. The author analyses intent and suggests response. 2

  

One, recently Chinese handset manufacturer Vivo won rights to cricket tournament Indian Premier League. "Vivo will pay Rs 2,199 crore for the next five years i.e. a 267% premium over the base price of Rs 120 crore a year". Subsequently Vivo signed a record five-year deal worth Rs 300 crore with Star Sports, broadcaster for Pro Kabaddi League.

 

Is it not odd for a company to bid at record levels and invest so much money in  sponsorships? The deeper intent is to associate Chinese brands with two popular Indians sports.

 

Vivo could be a front for the Chinese government just like it widely believed that a "Chinese-origin Singaporean billionaire is for Rs 305 crore massive gilded statue of Buddha" being built in Thimpu. 

 

It is unfair to expect honourable judges and sports administrators to understand geo-political strategies.

 

Since cricket is India's biggest religion the government could ask BCCI to revisit the Vivo sponsorship offer.

 

Two, Singhal wrote, "So also in the 12th Plan alone, close to 30% of generating capacity was sourced from China (goo.gl/5yB67A), with the trend continuing in the 13th Plan as well."

 

In such and similar sectors the government could introduce the concept of Minimum Import Price (MIP) as was done in the steel sector. MIP is the minimum price per tonne that Indian firms have to pay while importing products into India and was introduced to counter unfair trade practices. Remember only when Indian companies make profits will they invest in fresh capacity.

 

Three, "among the list of banks managing the recent Central Depository Services Ltd initial public offering was a curious name: Haitong Securities India Pvt Ltd. Haitong, as per its website, is China's second largest securities firm."

 

An open invite to FDI is fine but access has to be mutual.

 

The government must use tariff and non-tariff barriers to keep the Chinese at bay.

 

Thirteen: Be it investing in infrastructure projects in Iran, India's neighbourhood or building a Buddha statue in Bhutan, India must look to pool its resources with Japan.

 

Fourteen: China must be told that an escalation of border tensions would severely impact trade ties and reaching trade agreements at the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to be held in Hyderabad this week.

 

National achievements and soft power are important tools of psychological warfare. So -

 

Fifteen: The government must keep Team ISRO motivated so India's achievements in space technology continue.

 

Sixteen: Identify sports where China dominates but India has competence, for example, badminton and then build world champions. Work towards sustained dominance and do not get swayed by a few victories.

 

Seventeen: India has gifted China, Buddhism then and Yoga now. This needs wide publicity.  

 

Inspite of the fact that yoga helps Chinese women, mostly in the age group of 25 to 40, to remain young, healthy and fit China keeps threatening India by saying it will teach it a lesson. Notwithstanding Chinese hostility, the government must encourage more Indians esp. those from the northeast, to learn yoga and offer to help the Chinese.

 

Simultaneously the world, Chinese and Indians included must know that -

 

Eighteen: Annexing areas comes naturally to China. It annexed Tibet, Manchuria, Xinjiang and parts of Mongolia. To this add 38,000 sq kms of Akshai Chin (part of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir), that has since provided China with the only passageway between Tibet and Xinjiang.

 

Nineteen: China supports countries that indulge in terrorism and are a threat to world peace. For example the Pakistan North Korea nuclear and missile nexus. Last year Samuel Ramani wrote in thediplomat.com, "During the early 1990s, Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto purchased Rodong long-range missiles from North Korea. In exchange, Pakistan supplied Pyongyang with "civilian nuclear technology". In 2002, U.S. officials announced that Pakistan had exported gas centrifuges to help North Korea enrich uranium and construct a nuclear bomb." 3

 

By using Pakistan as a route for nuclear materials entering North Korea China could strengthen the DPRK's military capabilities without spoiling relations with the U.S. 

 

A second example is Chinese support to Pakistan, a country that gave refuge to Osama Bin Laden and uses terror as an instrument of State policy.  

 

Next India must invest in and nurture relations -   

 

Twenty: With a countries of Southeast Asia, the subcontinent and Japan.   

 

Twenty-one: Former ambassador and senior diplomat G Parthasarathy recently wrote that India has won gratitude in vocational training and education facilities for Myanmar personnel. He added our focus should be on  assisting populations living close to our borders through imaginative schemes for education, health, communications and small/village industries.

 

Twenty-two: Start direct flights between Imphal and Yangon and road connectivity. Both would increase trade and tourism.  

 

Twenty-three: Nepal and Bangladesh are welcome to do business with China. Give them a booklet of "how Chinese investments in Africa, Sri Lanka and Myanmar have faced strong local backlash and national election campaigns in Zambia and Sri Lanka were held on an anti-China plank."

 

Read China's debt trap diplomacy by Brahma Chellaney https://chellaney.net/2017/01/25/chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy

 

Twenty-four: In case China makes a railway line to Nepal make it known to our brothers there that India would not allow import of Chinese goods through the Indo-Nepal border. 

 

Twenty-five: India needs to promote tourism to the Northeast in a big way. The regions development and integration is critical to the success of India's Look East Policy.

 

Lastly, the Centre needs to counter possible Chinese moves to influence elections in India. The Chinese might do so because it believes that with every election victory BJP's stand on international issues gets tougher.

 

Read BJP's election win has implications for Sino-India ties http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1038018.shtml

 

How India must respond to Chinese investments in Africa requires a separate piece.

 

Soft and psychological power become potent when accompanied by comprehensive national strength. If and when Indian builds it, the intelligent will get the message.

 

The author is an independent columnist. He tweets @sanjeev1927  

 

 

References

1. Why India should rely on sea power to manage China's provocations http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/why-india-should-rely-on-sea-power-to-manage-china-s-provocations-117071301457_1.html

2.The Chinese encirclement: within and without - http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/e04zLoS4TcPPfZ8F0wxRiO/The-Chinese-encirclement-within-and-without.html

3.The long history of Pakistan China nexis http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/the-long-history-of-the-pakistan-north-korea-nexus/

 

Also read -

1.China's conduct and logic of power - http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/cvQxKI5NXXgmRLtEUZ6XFL/Chinas-conduct-and-the-logic-of-power.html

2.China Pak Water Axis on the Indus http://www.idsa.in/issuebrief/china-pakistan-water-axis-on-the-indus_psingh_190717

3. Are import restrictions to blame for India's trade deficit with China?  http://www.livemint.com/Politics/YmlQ6q1hLvmQMu0CQqd2FK/Are-import-restrictions-to-blame-for-Indias-trade-deficit-w.html

 

Warm Regards
sanjeev nayyar
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Fwd: India needs to be prepared for all eventualities+China’s challenging neighborhood diplomacy+How lack of synergy is hurting Indian Army’s hunt for weapons


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From: Sanjeev Nayyar


1. Doklam: Keeping the Powder Dry! 24.7.17 lt gen js bajwa http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/doklam-keeping-the-powder-dry/
Had these politicians refrained from meeting the Ambassador in view of the Doklam standoff, China would have got a very different message about India's resolve and support to the government by all political parties.
The Navy has an onerous task to protect the vast coast line. The vulnerability of Andaman and Nicobar Island to clandestine occupation by even a small Chinese force will be high on their agenda.
Without hard power handy a country has to make unacceptable compromises in its national interests to accommodate those of a belligerent. War may not be India's choice but not to prepare for it when there are war clouds looming would amount to a gross act of treason. Let my Countrymen not be fooled by our own people in power'.
 
2. What Chinese warmongering reveals 24.2.17 by Brahma C https://chellaney.net/2017/07/24/what-chinas-himalayan-warmongering-reveals/
Disinformation and deceit are among the tools China is employing in its psywar to tame India without military combat, in Sun Tzu style.'
One issue is China's disregard of international law, including the bilateral accords it has signed with Bhutan and India pledging not to alter the status quo unilaterally. As the South and East China seas also illustrate, Beijing signs agreements and treaties but does not comply with them.'
 
3. Are import restrictions to blame for India's trade deficit with China? 25.7.17 http://www.livemint.com/Politics/YmlQ6q1hLvmQMu0CQqd2FK/Are-import-restrictions-to-blame-for-Indias-trade-deficit-w.html
India's addiction to cheap Chinese phones rather than trade restrictions better explain the yawning trade gap with China.
 
4. Sino-Indian standoff: India needs to be prepared for all eventualities 25.7.17 by Kanwal Sibal http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/sino-indian-standoff-india-needs-to-be-prepared-for-all-eventualities/articleshow/59746083.cms
China's strategy on the border issue is a controlled one, both of not settling it and also negotiating agreements and measures to avoid an actual military clash. This way China keeps India under pressure, exposes the limitations of its political will and military capacity to confront it, keeps large parts of India's military forces tied up in the north and east with a view to releasing pressure on Pakistan, and through all this pursues its hegemonic ambitions in Asia as whole with diminished India'..
 
5. China's challenging neighborhood diplomacy OPED 24.7.17 http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1057815.shtml
n the future, China still faces a number of challenges in its neighborhood. The challenges need to be addressed with a holistic approach if China wants to maintain and prolong its current period of strategic opportunity, promote its domestic economic and political situation, and push forward the implementation of its initiatives and proposals.
Yet the biggest challenge for China lies in Donald Trump's China policy, given Washington's important position in the Asia-Pacific region and the unpredictability of the Trump administration.'

 
6. Why India must stand firm against 'China's psychological warfare' on the Doklam plateau stand-off 25.71.7 by Kapil Sibal http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-4726130/Why-India-stand-firm-against-China-Doklam.html
If the Chinese up the ante in Kashmir or the Northeast, they must think of their political vulnerabilities in Tibet and Taiwan.'
 
 
8. How lack of synergy is hurting Indian Army's hunt for weapons 25.7.17 by Sandeep Unnithan http://www.dailyo.in/politics/indian-army-insas-guns-weapons-cag-ofb-make-in-india/story/1/18549.html
Warm Regards
sanjeev nayyar
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sent from samsung galaxy note3 neo, so please excuse brevity